Last month, SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won said that the memory shortage could last until 2030. While it’s not exactly a difficult statement to understand, a more recent report provides more context to the claim. The report says that despite ramping up production, memory makers only expect to meet about 60% of demand by the end of 2027.
Nikkei Asia reports that among the top memory makers, including Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, are working to bring new fabs online. But these are only expected to happen sometime this year, if not 2027, and full-scale mass production does not begin immediately after.
For instance, Samsung is working on its fourth fab at its Pyeongtaek campus, and is only expecting it to be completed in 2026, and begin mass production in “2027 or later”. A fifth fab is also in the works, with the company not expecting it to begin operation until 2028 or later. SK Hynix is also constructing a new plant in Yongin, but despite being three months ahead of schedule, it’s only expected to be completed in February 2027.
Per the report, resolving the memory shortage crisis will require a production growth of 12% industry-wide through to 2027. But according to Hong Kong-based Counterpoint Research, current plans only amount to 7.5%. A Counterpoint researcher, MS Hwang, also says that supply and demand won’t normalise until 2028. Which does seem pretty optimistic compared to the forecast by SK Group, the parent of SK Hynix.
All that being said though, the report also notes that the three key memory makers “have prioritised” HBM, the enterprise grade memory. And it will likely continue to do so, seeing as the AI server market is the cause of the shortage. The new plants will likely prioritise those, while keeping consumer grade memory at a trickle.
(Source: Nikkei Asia)
